气候变化情景下云南省茶适生区空间模拟研究

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doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024052801

摘要： 茶是对气候变化极其敏感的作物之一,评价气候变化对云南省茶分布的影响,对制定茶区发展规划,保护生物多样性具有重要意义。根据100个茶分布点(分别为50个存在分布点和50个伪不存在分布点)以及14个环境因子,基于RF模型以及ArcGIS空间分析技术对云南省茶当前以及未来2041—2060年、2081—2100年不同情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)适生区进行空间模拟与预测。结果表明:1)RF模型精度为0.92,属非常好水平。年均降水量、坡度、最冷季平均降水量、最干季降水量、温度全年波动范围、坡向、曲率等因子对茶的分布具有显著影响。2)当前茶高适生区和适生区由南至北逐渐递减,呈C形分布,高适生区面积8.10×10⁴ km²,约占云南省茶适生面积的21.07%,适生区面积约9.18×10⁴ km²,约占云南省茶适生面积的23.88%。3)未来气候变化下,茶适生区面积扩大,适生区域往北移,呈W型分布变化,其中保山、临沧、普洱北部、红河等地适生区面积将明显扩大。未来新增适生区面积中对森林面积的侵占明显,因此可能导致新茶园开垦与森林面积以及生物多样性保护之间的冲突。

关键词: 气候变化, 茶, 适生区, 随机森林, 生物多样性

Abstract: Tea (Camellia sinensis), is extremely sensitive to climate change, so the impact of climate change on the distribution of tea in Yunnan Province is evaluated to formulate a development plan for tea-growing areas and protect biodiversity. Based on 100 tea distribution points (50 presence distribution points and 50 pseudo-absence distribution points, respectively) and 14 environmental variables, the suitable habitat areas of tea in Yunnan Province under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) at present and in future 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 were simulated and predicted based on RF model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology. The results showed that: 1) The accuracy of the RF model is 0.92, which was a very good level. Factors such as annual average rainfall, slope, rainfall in the driest season, average rainfall in the coldest season, annual temperature fluctuation range, slope aspect, curvature and other factors had significant effects on the distribution of tea. 2) At present, the most suitable and suitable areas for tea trees gradually decrease from south to north, showing a C-shaped distribution, with 8.10×10⁴ km² being highly suitable, accounting for approximately 21.07% of Yunnan Province, and approximately 9.18×10⁴ km² being suitable, accounting for approximately 23.88% of Yunnan Province. 3) With future climate change, the suitable areas of tea plants will expand andmove northward, showing a W-shaped distribution change; the suitable areas of tea plante in Baoshan, Lincang, northern Pu’er, Honghe, and other areas will considerably expand. In the future, the newly-developed area of suitable areas of tea will encroach on the forest area, which may lead to the conflict between the reclamation of new tea plantations and the conservation of forest area and biodiversity.

Key words: climatic change, teas, suitable areas, random forest, biodiversity

中图分类号: S571.1;S162.54

杨丽莎, 林钏, 张文齐, 崔换峰, 王艳霞. 气候变化情景下云南省茶适生区空间模拟研究[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 43(1): 110-120.

YANG Lisha, LIN Chuan, ZHANG Wenqi, CUI Huanfeng, WANG Yanxia. Spatial Simulation of Tea Suitable Area in Yunnan Province under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 43(1): 110-120.

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