江淮地区城市土地利用演变对景观格局与生态系统服务价值的影响

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2025010204

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 江淮地区地处南北过渡带,具有生物多样性、气候调节、农业及粮食安全、生态服务等生态重要性。滁州市为南北交通重要枢纽,境内岗地、丘陵和平原交错分布,具有典型江淮地区特征。本文以江淮地区典型城市滁州市为例,基于2000、2010、2020年3期土地利用数据,在土地转移矩阵、景观格局指数、灰色关联度等有关理论的基础上,分析滁州市2000—2020年土地利用与景观格局变化特征,基于Flus模型预测2030年滁州市土地利用情景,综合评估土地利用演变、景观格局变化、生态系统服务价值(ecosystem service value, ESV)变化及ESV与景观格局变化的相关性。结果表明:1)耕地为滁州市主导景观类型,2000—2020年建设用地不断扩张,林地面积增加,耕地、草地面积减小。2)2000—2020年滁州市景观格局变化明显,景观趋于破碎化、复杂化。3)2000—2020年滁州市ESV总量先增后减,整体下降。水域是滁州市ESV的主体,空间分布具有集聚性特点。4)滁州市景观层次ESV与最大斑块指数(LPI)、散布与并列指数(IJI)、景观形状指数(ISI)、斑块密度(PD)平均关联度等密切相关,斑块类型层次上景观格局指数与景观类型ESV关联度在一定程度上具有差异性和一致性。5)2030年土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)呈现以琅琊区中心城区为中心不断向外扩张的趋势,建设用地分散程度加深,其抵御生态风险的能力将趋于好转且各项景观格局数据将发生周期性变化,ESV总量同比增长0.78亿元。研究结果可为江淮地区城市优化景观格局、制定科学的土地利用政策等提供参考。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, 土地利用, 景观格局, 灰色关联模型, Flus模型, 滁州市

Abstract: The Jianghuai Region, situated in a transitional zone between northern and southern China, is characterized by ecological significance encompassing biodiversity, climate regulation, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem services. Chuzhou City, a critical transportation hub with interlaced distributions of terraces, hills, and plains, was selected as a case study due to its representative Jianghuai geographical features. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and landscape patterns in Chuzhou City during 2000-2020 was analyzed using land transfer matrices, landscape pattern indices, and gray correlation analysis. A Flus model was employed to predict land use scenarios for 2030. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted on land use evolution, landscape pattern dynamics, ecosystem service value (ESV) changes, and correlations between ESV and landscape patterns. The results indicated: 1)Cropland remained the dominant landscape type, while construction land expanded continuously. Forest area increased, whereas cropland and grassland decreased during 2000-2020. 2)Landscape patterns exhibited notable fragmentation and complexity over the study period. 3)Total ESV initially rose then declined, showing an overall downward trend. Water bodies contributed predominantly to ESV, with spatially clustered distributions. 4)At the landscape level, ESV correlated closely with the largest patch index (LPI), juxtaposition index (IJI), landscape shape index (LSI), and patch density (PD). At the patch type level, associations between landscape indices and ESV demonstrated both consistency and divergence. 5)By 2030, land use change are projected to feature outward expansion from Langya District’s urban core. Construction land dispersion is predicted to intensify, accompanied by improved ecological risk resilience, cyclical fluctuations in landscape metrics, and a 78-million-yuan increase in total ESV. This study provides theoretical references for optimizing landscape configurations and formulating land use policies in Jianghuai cities.

Key words: ecosystem service values, land use, landscape pattern, grey corellation model, Flus model, Chuzhou City, China

中图分类号: X171.1

张晓瑞, 陈雨, 王振波. 江淮地区城市土地利用演变对景观格局与生态系统服务价值的影响[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026, 44(1): 199-214.

ZHANG Xiaorui, CHEN Yu, WANG Zhenbo. Impact of Urban Land Use Evolution on Landscape Pattern and Ecosystem Service Value in Jianghuai Region, China[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2026, 44(1): 199-214.

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