基于组合赋权可拓物元评价模型的玉林市水资源承载力评价

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doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024032801

摘要： 玉林市GDP位于广西前列但人均水资源量却处于末位,由于区域性缺水以及不合理的水资源开发利用等问题,有的城区出现断水或用水高峰期限制供水等现象,已经使玉林市经济社会的可持续发展面临严峻挑战。为了对玉林市的水资源进行科学合理的利用,基于可拓物元评价模型,利用主成分分析法筛选出18项评价指标,引入博弈论组合赋权思想计算出主客观权重的综合权重,对玉林市2010—2020年进行水资源承载力评价。结果表明:玉林市2010—2020年水资源承载力整体呈波动上升趋势,但变化幅度不大;水资源承载力只在2011年处于较弱承载水平,其他年份均属于中等承载水平;2010、2014和2018年呈现由中等承载向较弱承载等级转化的趋势;玉林市水资源承载力的主要影响因素为水资源开发利用率、生态用水率、万元GDP用水量和人口密度,结合玉林市降水量较为丰富但时空分布不均的实际情况,建议将提升玉林市水资源配置能力作为重点工作内容,落实最严格的水资源管理制度,全方位提升玉林市水资源承载力,实现社会经济的可持续发展。

关键词: 水资源承载力, 评价指标体系, 可拓物元模型, 博弈论, 组合赋权, 主成分分析法, 玉林市

Abstract: Yulin’s GDP is at the forefront of the whole region, but its per capita water resources are at the bottom. Due to regional water shortage and unreasonable water resources development and utilization, some urban areas have the problems of water cut off or restricted water supply during peak periods, which has made Yulin’s sustainable economic and social development face severe challenges. In order to make scientific and rational use of water resources in Yulin City, based on the extension matter element evaluation model, 18 evaluation indexes were selected by the principal component analysis method, and the comprehensive weights of subjective and objective weights were calculated by the game theory to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin City from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Yulin City fluctuated and increased from 2010 to 2020, but the change range was small; The carrying capacity of water resources was weak in 2011, and medium in other years. In 2010, 2014 and 2018, there was a trend of transformation from V₃ (medium load) to V₄(Relatively weak load). The main influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity in Yulin City were the utilization rate of water resources development, ecological water use rate, water consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP and population density. At the same time, considering the actual situation that the precipitation in Yulin was relatively rich but the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven, it is suggested that improvement of the water resources allocation capacity of Yulin should be considered as the key content of work, and the strictest water resources management system should be implemented to comprehensively improve Yulin’s water resources carrying capacity, and achieve sustainable social and economic development.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, evaluation index system, extension matter-element model, game theory, combinatorial empowerment, principal component analysis, Yulin City

中图分类号: TV211.1

莫崇勋, 农颂, 唐玲玲, 黄奕, 黎禹功, 朱翰林. 基于组合赋权可拓物元评价模型的玉林市水资源承载力评价[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 43(1): 230-241.

MO Chongxun, NONG Song, TANG Lingling, HUANG Yi, LI Yugong, ZHU Hanlin. Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yulin City Based on Combination-Weighted Extension Matter-Element Evaluation Model[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 43(1): 230-241.

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