1959—2018年云南三江并流区极端气候变化特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2025090902

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于云南三江并流区1959—2018年的逐日气象数据,采用极端气候指数、气候倾向率、突变检验、Morlet复小波、皮尔逊相关性和小波相关性等方法分析研究区极端气候特征及其影响因素。结果表明:1)极端气温暖/冷指数处于上升/下降趋势。极端气温指数的突变年份显著且集中出现在1982—1994年和1998—2006年,具有9~13和44~57 a的主周期。极端降水持续时间指数处于下降趋势,极端降水量指数的变化趋势存在空间差异。极端降水指数的突变年份不显著且分散,具有6和55~57 a的主周期。2)极端气温绝对指数与多年平均气温(正相关)、海拔(负相关)、纬度(负相关)之间存在显著相关性,极端降水指数与多年平均气温(正相关)、日降水(正相关)、经度(负相关)之间存在显著相关性,并表现出自西向东减少的趋势。3)AMO(大西洋多年代际振荡指数)与极端气温指数存在广泛的相关性,极端气温指数多滞后于大气环流指数,符合一般的海洋-大气驱动的物理过程,特定时段出现的极端气温指数与大气环流指数的相位关系减弱或逆转,源于其他强气候信号的介入。

关键词: 三江并流区, 极端气候, 时空变化, 气候振荡, 全球大尺度, 变化特征, 影响因素

Abstract: Based on daily meteorological data from 1959 to 2018, this study employed extreme climate indices, climate tendency rates, abrupt change detection, Morlet complex wavelet analysis, Pearson correlation, and wavelet coherence analysis to investigate the characteristics of extreme climate and its influencing factors in the study area. The main findings are as follows: 1) Warm extreme temperature indices showed an increasing trend, while cold extreme temperature indices exhibited a decreasing trend. The abrupt changes in extreme temperature indices occurred notably and concentratedly around1982-1994 year and1998-2006 year, with dominant cycles of 9-13 years and 44-57 years. Extreme precipitation duration indices displayed a decreasing trend, while the trends in extreme precipitation intensity indices showed spatial heterogeneity. The abrupt changes in extreme precipitation indices were insignificant and scattered, with dominant cycles of 6 years and 55-57 years. 2) Absolute extreme temperature indices showed significant correlations with multi-year average temperature (positive), elevation (negative), and latitude (negative). Extreme precipitation indices exhibited relatively significant correlations with multi-year average temperature (positive),daily precipitation (positive), and longitude (negative), displaying a trend of decreasing from west to east. 3) The AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)was extensively correlated with extreme temperature indices. Most extreme temperature indices lagged behind atmospheric circulation indices, which aligns with the general physical process of ocean-atmosphere driving. The weakening or reversal of phase relationships between extreme temperature indices and atmospheric circulation indices during specific periods arised from the influence of other strong climate signals.

Key words: Three Parallel Rivers, extreme climate, spatiotemporal variation, climate oscillation, global large-scale, variation, influencing factor

中图分类号: P467;S42

吴坤德, 吴利华, 成鹏, 赵雄, 袁立, 刘俊枫. 1959—2018年云南三江并流区极端气候变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026, 44(5): 135-150.

Wu Kunde, Wu Lihua, Cheng Peng, Zhao Xiong, Yuan Li, Liu Junfeng. Variations of extreme climate(1959-2018) in Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan and their relationship with global large-scale climate oscillations[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2026, 44(5): 135-150.

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