广西师范大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 170-182.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024080502

• 生态环境科学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2000—2020年福建省生境质量时空演变及预测

金润1,2, 何丽1,2*, 罗芳2, 何政伟2, 李丹2, 林之钰2, 黄雨娜2   

  1. 1.自然资源要素耦合过程与效应重点实验室(中国地质调查局自然资源综合调查指挥中心),北京 100055;
    2.成都理工大学地理与规划学院,四川成都 610059
  • 收稿日期:2024-08-05 修回日期:2024-09-03 出版日期:2025-05-05 发布日期:2025-05-14
  • 通讯作者: 何丽(1991—),女,四川成都人,成都理工大学副研究员,博士。E-mail: heli2020@cdut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(42301456); 自然资源要素耦合过程与效应重点实验室开放课题(2022KFKTC018)

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Fujian Province, 2000-2020

JIN Run1,2, HE Li1,2*, LUO Fang2, HE Zhengwei2, LI Dan2, LIN Zhiyu2, HUANG Yuna2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements (Command Center of Natural Resource Comprehensive Survey), Beijing 100055, China;
    2. College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu Sichuan 610059, China
  • Received:2024-08-05 Revised:2024-09-03 Online:2025-05-05 Published:2025-05-14

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摘要： 生境质量是区域生态系统服务能力和水平的体现,定量评估其时空演变特征并预测未来变化对区域高质量发展具有重要意义。本文以福建省为研究对象,应用InVEST模型和地理探测器,定量分析该地区生境质量的时空演化特征及其驱动因素,并借助PLUS模型,对2020—2040年间福建省的土地利用及生境质量时空分布进行模拟预测。结果表明:1)2000—2020年福建省耕地、林地和草地均呈减少趋势,减少区域主要发生在东南沿海及周边区域,主要转为建设用地。2)2000—2020年福建省生境质量整体较好,平均生境质量有轻微降低的趋势,南平市西北部和闽江中上游的生境质量较高,而漳州、厦门、莆田等沿海地区的生境质量较低。3)PLUS模型预测显示,在耕地和生态保护情景下,未来20年福建省耕地、林地、草地面积将会增加,而其他3种地类则呈减少趋势。这使得生境质量均值呈逐渐上升趋势,高生境质量区域面积进一步扩大。4)影响福建省生境质量变化的第一主导因素为植被初级净生产力(NPP)(q为0.262),其次是GDP(q为0.199),交互作用探测结果显示,自然因素之间的相互作用对福建省生境质量影响尤为显著。

关键词: 福建省, 生境质量, InVEST模型, PLUS模型, 地理探测器

Abstract: Habitat quality indicates the capacity of regional ecosystems to supply essential services. Quantitatively assessing its spatial and temporal evolution and forecasting future changes are critical for high-quality regional development. This study focused on Fujian Province, where the InVEST model and GEO-detector were used to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of habitat quality and its driving factors. Additionally, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the spatial and temporal distributions of land use and habitat quality in Fujian Province from 2020 to 2040. The findings revealed that: 1) Between 2000 and 2020, there had been a decline in cultivated land, forest land, and grassland in Fujian Province, with the most significant reductions occurring in the southeastern coastal and adjacent areas, where these lands had largely been converted to urban development. 2) Habitat quality in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2020 was generally good, with a slight decreasing trend in average habitat quality. The northwest of Nanping City, and the middle and upper areas of the Minjiang River had relatively high habitat quality, while the coastal areas of Zhangzhou, Xiamen, and Putian had low habitat quality. 3) The PLUS model predicted that under the cropland and ecological protection scenarios, the area of cropland, forest land, and grassland in Fujian Province will increase in the next 20 years, while water bodies, built-up land, and unutilized land showed a decreasing trend. This results in a gradual upward trend in the mean habitat quality and a further increase in the proportion of high habitat quality areas. 4) The first dominant factor in the change of habitat quality in Fujian Province was NPP (q=0.262), followed by GDP (q=0.199), and the results of the interaction detection showed that the interaction between the two factors of nature had a more prominent effect on the habitat quality in Fujian Province.

Key words: Fujian Province, China, habitat quality, InVEST model, PLUS model, GEO-detector

中图分类号:  X171; X37

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