基于PLUS-InVEST模型的漓江流域生态系统服务多情景评估研究

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024071205

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生态系统服务量化评估可以为科学决策提供信息,对于保护和提高生态系统服务功能,促进区域可持续发展有重要的现实意义。本文以漓江流域为研究区,运用PLUS模型预测土地利用变化,模拟2030年自然发展情景、城镇发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用结构,进而利用InVEST模型对流域2010年、2020年和2030年的产水服务、碳储存服务和土壤保持服务进行评估和预测。结果表明:1)土地利用方面,2010—2020年间漓江流域建设用地、水域面积增加,耕地、林地和草地面积减少,2030年多情景下漓江流域土地利用呈现出耕地、林地、草地向建设用地转化的现象。自然发展情景和城镇发展情景下建设用地扩张明显;生态保护情景下耕地、林地和草地面积下降趋势及建设用地扩张速率得到有效控制;耕地保护情景有助于降低耕地向建设用地转化。2)生态系统服务方面,2010—2020年间漓江流域生态系统服务空间分布差异显著,产水量和土壤保持量都呈现上升趋势,碳储存量呈现降低趋势。流域中西部为产水量高值区,流域北部和东部为碳储存量和土壤保持量高值集中区。2030年城镇发展情景下产水量持续增加;发展情景差异对碳储存服务产生显著影响,生态保护情景能够提高碳储存量;土壤保持服务呈现出逐年升高趋势,并在自然发展情景下达到最大。3)建设用地扩张会导致产水服务提升,林地和草地减少引起碳储存量下降,建设用地扩张和林地草地减少使流域土壤保持量呈现出先升高再降低的趋势。研究漓江流域生态和社会经济不同发展模式所带来的生态系统服务变化规律可为流域土地利用空间规划和生态系统管理提供科学决策参考。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 多情景模拟, 漓江流域, PLUS模型, InVEST模型

Abstract: The quantification and assessment of ecosystem services provide critical information for scientific decision-making, which holds significant practical importance for the protection and enhancement of these services as well as the promotion of sustainable regional development. This study focuses on the Lijiang River Basin, uses the PLUS model to predict land use changes and simulate land use structures under natural development scenarios, urban development scenarios, cultivated land protection scenarios, and ecological protection scenarios in 2030. Furthermore, the InVEST model is utilized to evaluate water yield service, carbon storage service, and soil conservation service in the basin for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The conclusions were as follows: 1) Regarding land use dynamics from 2010 to 2020 in the Lijiang River Basin, the construction land and water area were increasing, while the cultivated land, forest land, and grassland areas decreased. In 2030, under multiple scenarios, the land use in the Lijiang River Basin showed a trend of conversion from cultivated land, forest land, and grassland to construction land. The expansion of construction land was evident under both natural development scenarios and urban development scenarios; under the ecological protection scenario, the declining trend of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland areas and the expansion rate of construction land were effectively controlled; the cultivated land protection scenario helps to reduce the conversion of cultivated land to construction land. 2) Concerning ecosystem services between 2010-2020 within the basin’s spatial distribution exhibited marked differences: both water yield and soil conservation demonstrated upward trends whereas carbon storage declined. The central and western parts of the basin were high-value areas for water production, while the northern and eastern parts were concentrated areas for high values of carbon storage and soil conservation. In 2030, under the urban development scenario, water production continued to increase; the differences in development scenarios had a significant impact on carbon sequestration services, and the ecological protection scenario could increase carbon storage; soil conservation services showed an increasing trend year by year and reached their maximum under the natural development scenario. 3) The proliferation of constructed environments correlates positively with enhanced water yield services but negatively impacts on forested regions leading to diminished carbon reserves; additionally, fluctuations observed indicate initial increases followed by subsequent decreases in soil conservation volumes due to construction land expansions alongside reductions in forests/grasslands. Exploring how different ecological-socioeconomic developmental modes affect ecosystem service alterations within the Lijiang River Basin can furnish valuable insights for informed spatial planning regarding land utilization along with comprehensive management practices.

Key words: ecosystem services, multi-scenario simulation, Lijiang River Basin, PLUS model, InVEST model

中图分类号: X171.1

贾艳红, 黄俊忠, 吴春竹, 胡洪文. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的漓江流域生态系统服务多情景评估研究[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 43(3): 156-169.

JIA Yanhong, HUANG Junzhong, WU Chunzhu, HU Hongwen. Multi-scenario Ecosystem Service Assessment of Lijiang River Basin Based on PLUS-InVEST Model[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 43(3): 156-169.

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