基于MaxEnt模型的中国黄杉潜在适宜生境变化分析

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2023102502

Abstract

Abstract: Pseudotsuga sinensis is an endemic plant in China, which is not only a valuable economic tree but also an important component of the mountain ecosystem, and is National Level II Key Protected Species in China. However, in recent years, due to logging activities, its number has declined sharply, so it is urgent to carry out related research on its protection. In this study, MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution and spatial pattern changes of the suitable areas of P. sinensis under the two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585 in the future, to explore the main environmental factors influencing its distribution and its dynamic changes, and to evaluate the future survival prospects of P. sinensis combined with the age structure of the main distribution areas so as to provide a theoretical basis for the protection and rational utilization of P. sinensis germplasm resources under the background of climate change in the future. The results indicated that: 1) Precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, elevation and the lowest temperature in the coldest month were the key factors affecting the distribution of P. sinensis, and their contribution rates were 40.8%, 24.7%, 15.8% and 7.2%, respectively; 2) At present, the suitable habitat areas of P. sinensis were mainly distributed in Taiwan and southwest China. The core distribution areas were concentrated in the alpine area of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau; 3) In the future, under different scenarios and at different periods, the distribution of suitable areas of P. sinensis showed a trend of northward migration, and the area of suitable areas increasd slightly, but the distribution strip of the core high suitable area was fractured, showing a certain degree of fragmentation distribution. In addition, the suitable areas of most key protected populations remained unchanged, but the suitable areas of some populations were reduced. These populations are at potential risk of extinction and should be prioritized for protection.

Key words: Pseudotsuga sinensis, climate change, MaxEnt, potential habitat area, distribution pattern, age structure

CLC Number: Q948

NONG Xiaoxia, YU Huaying, XIANG Yingying, YANG Pangyu, ZHANG Qiwei. Analysis of Potential Suitable Habitat Change of Pseudotsuga sinensis Based on MaxEnt Model[J].Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2024, 42(6): 215-225.

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Analysis of Potential Suitable Habitat Change of Pseudotsuga sinensis Based on MaxEnt Model

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