基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS分析气候变化背景下水茄的潜在适生区

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2023110303

Abstract

Abstract: Predicting the range of suitable areas for plants under different climatic conditions is beneficial for understanding the geographical distribution characteristics of this plants and its response strategies to climate change. The potential distribution area of Solanum torvum in China under present and three future Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050s and 2070s were simulated by the MaxEnt model (3.4.4), and then using ArcGIS (10.8) for visualization and analysis of its potential spatial patterns and environmental influencing factors in China. The AUC value for the reconstructed MaxEnt was 0.962, indicating excellent prediction accuracy of the model. Temperature annual range (bio7), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), annual precipitation (bio12), and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. torvum. The potentially suitable areas for the current distribution of S. torvum cover 79.14×10⁴ km², with a high suitability area 17.86×10⁴ km². The high suitability areas were mainly located in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. There were significant differences in the suitable area of S. torvum between different periods, and its suitable area generally showed an expanding trend in future climate scenario. However, compared with the potential suitable area in the current climate, its suitable areas in Taiwan decreased 0.05×10⁴ km² under the 2050s RCP4.5 period. Therefore, climate warming was beneficial for the geographical expansion of S. torvum.

Key words: Solanum torvum, MaxEnt, suitable area prediction, climate change

CLC Number: Q948

WANG Yanru, YAO Wei, CHEN Xinyue, WANG Guohai, ZHOU Qihai. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Solanum torvum Based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS[J].Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2024, 42(6): 205-214.

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Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Solanum torvum Based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS

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