基于QMD-LDBO-BiGRU的风速预测模型

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024062402

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对风速的随机性和波动性,为了进一步提高预测精度,本文提出一种融合二次模态分解、改进的蜣螂优化算法以及双向门控循环单元的组合预测模型。首先,针对蜣螂优化算法(DBO)中存在的容易陷入局部最优、全局搜索能力差等问题,引入拉丁超立方抽样、切线飞行等策略对DBO进行改进,并将改进算法(LDBO)用于BiGRU的参数寻优;其次,利用二次模态分解降低原始数据的复杂度,为后续建模提供稳定的序列数据;然后,使用BiGRU分别对二次模态分解后所得到的各模态分量分别进行预测,叠加各模态分量的预测结果作为最终预测结果;最后,将所提出的QMD-LDBO-BiGRU预测模型与其他4种主流预测模型(CNN-LSTM、TCN-RVM、ELM-Adaboost、BiTCN-SVM)进行对比实验,结果表明QMD-LDBO-BiGRU模型的评价指标R²达到98.086%,与对比模型相比分别提高21.396、19.525、11.474、5.457个百分点,验证了所提模型的有效性及适用性,为进一步提高风速预测的准确性提供一定参考。

关键词: 风速预测, 二次模态分解, CEEMDAN, VMD, 蜣螂优化算法, 双向门控循环单元

Abstract: In order to reduce the randomness and volatility of wind speed and further improve the prediction accuracy, a combined prediction model combining with quadratic mode decomposition, which can improve dung beetle optimizer and bidirectional gated recurrent unit was proposed. Firstly, aiming at the problems such as local optimization and poor global search ability in Dung Beetle optimizer (DBO), the improved algorithm (LDBO) is improved by introducing Latin hypercube sampling, tangential flight and other strategies, and the improved algorithm (LDBO) is used for parameter optimization of BiGRU. Secondly, the quadratic modal decomposition is used to reduce the complexity of the original data and provide stable sequence data for subsequent modeling. Then, BiGRU is used to predict each modal component obtained after the quadratic mode decomposition, and the prediction results of each modal component are superimposed as the final prediction results. Finally, the proposed QMD-LDBO-BiGRU prediction model is compared with other four mainstream prediction models (CNN-LSTM, TCN-RVM, ELM-Adaboost, BiTCN-SVM). Experimental results show that the evaluation index R² of the QMD-LDBO-BiGRU model reaches 98.086%, which is increased by 21.396, 19.525, 11.474, 5.457 percentage points compared with the comparison model, respectively, which verifies the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model and provides a certain reference for further improving the accuracy of wind speed prediction.

Key words: wind speed prediction, quadratic mode decomposition, CEEMDAN, VMD, Dung beetle optimizer, bidirectional gated recurrent unit

中图分类号: TM614;TP18

陈禹, 陈磊, 张怡, 张志瑞. 基于QMD-LDBO-BiGRU的风速预测模型[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 43(4): 38-57.

CHEN Yu, CHEN Lei, ZHANG Yi, ZHANG Zhirui. Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on QMD-LDBO-BiGRU[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 43(4): 38-57.

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