Abstract: The quantification and assessment of ecosystem services provide critical information for scientific decision-making, which holds significant practical importance for the protection and enhancement of these services as well as the promotion of sustainable regional development. This study focuses on the Lijiang River Basin, uses the PLUS model to predict land use changes and simulate land use structures under natural development scenarios, urban development scenarios, cultivated land protection scenarios, and ecological protection scenarios in 2030. Furthermore, the InVEST model is utilized to evaluate water yield service, carbon storage service, and soil conservation service in the basin for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The conclusions were as follows: 1) Regarding land use dynamics from 2010 to 2020 in the Lijiang River Basin, the construction land and water area were increasing, while the cultivated land, forest land, and grassland areas decreased. In 2030, under multiple scenarios, the land use in the Lijiang River Basin showed a trend of conversion from cultivated land, forest land, and grassland to construction land. The expansion of construction land was evident under both natural development scenarios and urban development scenarios; under the ecological protection scenario, the declining trend of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland areas and the expansion rate of construction land were effectively controlled; the cultivated land protection scenario helps to reduce the conversion of cultivated land to construction land. 2) Concerning ecosystem services between 2010-2020 within the basin’s spatial distribution exhibited marked differences: both water yield and soil conservation demonstrated upward trends whereas carbon storage declined. The central and western parts of the basin were high-value areas for water production, while the northern and eastern parts were concentrated areas for high values of carbon storage and soil conservation. In 2030, under the urban development scenario, water production continued to increase; the differences in development scenarios had a significant impact on carbon sequestration services, and the ecological protection scenario could increase carbon storage; soil conservation services showed an increasing trend year by year and reached their maximum under the natural development scenario. 3) The proliferation of constructed environments correlates positively with enhanced water yield services but negatively impacts on forested regions leading to diminished carbon reserves; additionally, fluctuations observed indicate initial increases followed by subsequent decreases in soil conservation volumes due to construction land expansions alongside reductions in forests/grasslands. Exploring how different ecological-socioeconomic developmental modes affect ecosystem service alterations within the Lijiang River Basin can furnish valuable insights for informed spatial planning regarding land utilization along with comprehensive management practices.

Key words: ecosystem services, multi-scenario simulation, Lijiang River Basin, PLUS model, InVEST model