2000—2020年福建省生境质量时空演变及预测

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2024080502

Abstract

Abstract: Habitat quality indicates the capacity of regional ecosystems to supply essential services. Quantitatively assessing its spatial and temporal evolution and forecasting future changes are critical for high-quality regional development. This study focused on Fujian Province, where the InVEST model and GEO-detector were used to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of habitat quality and its driving factors. Additionally, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the spatial and temporal distributions of land use and habitat quality in Fujian Province from 2020 to 2040. The findings revealed that: 1) Between 2000 and 2020, there had been a decline in cultivated land, forest land, and grassland in Fujian Province, with the most significant reductions occurring in the southeastern coastal and adjacent areas, where these lands had largely been converted to urban development. 2) Habitat quality in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2020 was generally good, with a slight decreasing trend in average habitat quality. The northwest of Nanping City, and the middle and upper areas of the Minjiang River had relatively high habitat quality, while the coastal areas of Zhangzhou, Xiamen, and Putian had low habitat quality. 3) The PLUS model predicted that under the cropland and ecological protection scenarios, the area of cropland, forest land, and grassland in Fujian Province will increase in the next 20 years, while water bodies, built-up land, and unutilized land showed a decreasing trend. This results in a gradual upward trend in the mean habitat quality and a further increase in the proportion of high habitat quality areas. 4) The first dominant factor in the change of habitat quality in Fujian Province was NPP (q=0.262), followed by GDP (q=0.199), and the results of the interaction detection showed that the interaction between the two factors of nature had a more prominent effect on the habitat quality in Fujian Province.

Key words: Fujian Province, China, habitat quality, InVEST model, PLUS model, GEO-detector

CLC Number: X171; X37

JIN Run, HE Li, LUO Fang, HE Zhengwei, LI Dan, LIN Zhiyu, HUANG Yuna. Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Fujian Province, 2000-2020[J].Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2025, 43(3): 170-182.

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Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Fujian Province, 2000-2020

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