关键词: 出行率, SP调查, 私家车, 政策, 广州市

Abstract: It is important to study the changes of the private cars’ trip rates under different policies, which may provide theoretical basis for the policy making to reduce private cars’ trip rate effectively. Questionnaire is designed based on SP survey and RP survey combined with the actual situation of Guangzhou, and the situation of the simultaneous change of multi-factor is also considered in the design of the questionnaire. The sample data are randomly selected among people who have private cars or plan to buy private cars recently in Guangzhou. A binomial logit selection model for different travel conditions is established after cluster analysis of the investigated population, and then the change of residents’ travel rate under the change of policy is calculated by the model. Finally, it is concluded that the average number of commuters who choose private cars for commuting trips is mostly affected by various factors, and commuters are more sensitive to fuel costs than bus departure intervals and parking fees.

Key words: trip generation rate, SP survey, private cars, policy, Guangzhou, China