Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 28-38.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2023032401

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Traffic Risk Assessment Method under Road Congestion Based on Improved DEMATEL-ISM Model

WANG Cui1, SONG Yongchao1*, WU Linjian2,3, ZHAO Xueting4   

  1. 1. School of Traffic & Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;
    2. National Inland Waterway Regulation Engineering Research Center (Chongqing Jiaotong University) Chongqing 400074, China;
    3. School of River & Ocean Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China;
    4. Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650500, China
  • Received:2023-03-24 Revised:2023-06-26 Online:2024-01-25 Published:2024-01-19

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Abstract: In order to accurately identify the internal relationship between various influencing factors and the key factors in the driving risk system under urban road congestion conditions, an improved DEMATEL-ISM evaluation method is proposed. Firstly, the traffic risk under the condition of urban road congestion is analyzed, and 18 risk factors are selected. Secondly, a traffic risk assessment model of road congestion is established by using the questionnaire method of multi-group inquiry and the improvement of the standard integrated decision Test and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and the interpretive structure model (ISM) combined with the maximum inter-class variance method. Finally, the results of example verification show that the driving risk assessment system based on the improved DEMATEL-ISM method can accurately divide the levels of the hierarchical interpretation structure chart, and is more realistic compared with other methods. Key link factors such as traffic density, headway, stopping times and lane change frequency have a strong linkage effect on other factors, which will increase the probability of traffic accidents or secondary traffic congestion.

Key words: urban traffic, road congestion, driving risk, risk assessment, DEMATEL-ISM, maximum inter-class variance method

CLC Number:  U492.8
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