Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2018, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 133-143.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2018.03.019

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation of Land Use Change in Tianjin Binhai New Area Based on CA-Markov Model

LI Xianjiang, SHI Shuqin*, CAI Weimin, CAO Yuqing   

  1. School of Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China
  • Received:2017-11-03 Online:2018-07-17 Published:2018-07-17

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Abstract: Based on the land use data of 2005, 2010 and 2015 in Tianjin Binhai New Area, this paper quantitatively analyzes the change of land use in the study area by using the dynamic degree model. The CA-Markov model is used to predict the future land use pattern of the study area, and the simulation data of 2015 and the actual interpretation data in 2015 are verified. According to the extended kappa index, the consistency between the two layers is high, indicating that the simulation accuracy is better. And then the land use pattern in 2025 was simulated and predicted, the results are as follows: compared with the period from 2005 to 2015, the land use types in the study area during the 2015-2025 period are mainly based on the waters, urban and rural mining and residential land and cultivated land. The area of urban and rural industrial and mining residents will continue to expand on the basis of the original, the area of water will continue to increase, the area of woodland, grassland and unused land will continue to decrease, the area of cultivated land will continue to decrease significantly, and land use change is larger. This indicates that the future land use pressure of the study area will be further increased, which indicates that relevant response should be done in advance. This study provides the relevant basis for the future land use planning of Tianjin Binhai New Area.

Key words: Tianjin Binhai New Area, China, land use dynamic degree, CA-Markov model, precision test, planning

CLC Number: 

  • F301.2
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