Abstract: Tea (Camellia sinensis), is extremely sensitive to climate change, so the impact of climate change on the distribution of tea in Yunnan Province is evaluated to formulate a development plan for tea-growing areas and protect biodiversity. Based on 100 tea distribution points (50 presence distribution points and 50 pseudo-absence distribution points, respectively) and 14 environmental variables, the suitable habitat areas of tea in Yunnan Province under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) at present and in future 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 were simulated and predicted based on RF model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology. The results showed that: 1) The accuracy of the RF model is 0.92, which was a very good level. Factors such as annual average rainfall, slope, rainfall in the driest season, average rainfall in the coldest season, annual temperature fluctuation range, slope aspect, curvature and other factors had significant effects on the distribution of tea. 2) At present, the most suitable and suitable areas for tea trees gradually decrease from south to north, showing a C-shaped distribution, with 8.10×10⁴ km² being highly suitable, accounting for approximately 21.07% of Yunnan Province, and approximately 9.18×10⁴ km² being suitable, accounting for approximately 23.88% of Yunnan Province. 3) With future climate change, the suitable areas of tea plants will expand andmove northward, showing a W-shaped distribution change; the suitable areas of tea plante in Baoshan, Lincang, northern Pu’er, Honghe, and other areas will considerably expand. In the future, the newly-developed area of suitable areas of tea will encroach on the forest area, which may lead to the conflict between the reclamation of new tea plantations and the conservation of forest area and biodiversity.

Key words: climatic change, teas, suitable areas, random forest, biodiversity