Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 24-32.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2020102902

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Forecasting Method of Highway Freight Volume Based on GC-rBPNN Model during COVID-19 Epidemic

TIAN Sheng1*, LI Chengwei1, HUANG Wei2, WANG Lei2   

  1. 1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510640, China;
    2. Guangzhou Transportation Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Guangdong 511430, China
  • Received:2020-10-29 Revised:2020-12-13 Online:2021-11-25 Published:2021-12-08

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Abstract: Under the COVID-19 epidemic situation, the volume of road freight has declined significantly, and road operations have changed complexly. It is urgent to scientifically predict the volume of road freight. Through gray correlation analysis, the main factors affecting road freight volume during the epidemic period are determined, and a road freight volume forecast method based on the gray combination (GC)-revised BP neural network (rBPNN) model is constructed. The BP neural network is trained and tested based on the statistical data of China’s road freight volume from July 2017 to May 2020 as the original data, and the “correction coefficient” HM is introduced to modify the predicting result. Based on the data of the past five months during the epidemic, the gray combined model is used to predict the value of the main factors affecting the road freight volume in the next month, and the BP neural network is used to predict China’s road freight volume in June 2020. Compared the GC-rBPNN model with other prediction methods, the PE and MAPE of the GC-rBPNN model are 0.21% and 3.21%, respectively. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the GC-rBPNN model is higher, and the method has certain feasibility and effectiveness.

Key words: highway freight volume, epidemic situation, grey correlation degree, BP neural network, combined forecasting model

CLC Number: 

  • U492.313
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