基于收费数据的高速公路行程时间可靠性估计模型

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2016.04.011

Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2016, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 70-77.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2016.04.011

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Reliability Estimation Model of Freeway Travel Time Based on Toll Data

ZHANG Tengyue,WENG Xiaoxiong

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510640, China

Received:2016-04-21 Online:2016-07-18 Published:2018-07-23

Abstract

Abstract: Mass freeway toll data contain various traffic information and are readily available. This paper analyzes the difference of travel time distributions of freeway passenger car and freight car and constructs different reliability estimation models for them. Then the paper fit above data with normal and lognormal distributions using MATLAB. The result shows that it’s acceptable to analyze the distributional characteristics of travel time for passenger car and freight car with normal distribution. The SSE, RMSE, and R-square of travel time distribution are better by model method than those by direct method. Finally, the reliability interval of both types of cars are compared and the result shows that it is more stable with model method under the same probability.

Key words: freeway toll data, travel time, reliability estimation, normal distribution, lognormal distribution

CLC Number:

U491

ZHANG Tengyue,WENG Xiaoxiong. Reliability Estimation Model of Freeway Travel Time Based on Toll Data[J].Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2016, 34(4): 70-77.

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Reliability Estimation Model of Freeway Travel Time Based on Toll Data

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