Abstract: The global change caused by human activities has become a hot research issue in the world, at the same time, the ecological security problems caused by human activities have attracted great attention from scholars of all circles. As a key research focus, great concerns have also been showed to the ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on the comprehensive evaluation of ecological security in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the follow-up development bottleneck of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the existing problems are analyzed to determine the stress factor from three aspects of nature, society and economy. A system dynamic model was established based on the Vensim software platform for the subsequent development of ecological safety of the Three Gorges Reservoir. After the model test, a dynamic simulation on future development of the ecological safety of the Three Gorges reservoir is carried out. Based on the feedback relationship and simulation results, the stress mechanism of subsequent development of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area are analyzed, which will lay a foundation for subsequent development evaluation and early warning of ecological security of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

Key words: Three Gorges reservoir area, the principal component analysis, stress factors, system dynamics, stress mechanism