Abstract: Dispatch reliability is the key parameters reflecting the overall reliability of a civil aircraft, and the important technical parameters affecting the original design of a civil aircraft. According to the actual delay rate data of airlines, combined with the mathematical relationship between delay rate and dispatch reliability, from the perspective of civil aircraft design, seven design parameters at the aircraft early design phase are put forward in this paper, the correlation analysis between the delay rate and design parameters is made, the first three design parameters which have the maximum correlation are obtained. Also this paper, a multiple regression model between dispatch reliability and aircraft original design parameters is established. Based on this model, the dispatch reliability of civil aircraft can be predicted. An empirical study with A320 and C919 shows that the prediction model is reasonable and has higher precision accuracy, which may lay the theoretical basis and data support for dispatch reliability prediction of the civil aircraft in China, meanwhile the prediction model of dispatch reliability can provide reference data for the structure design of civil aircraft.

Key words: dispatch reliability, reliability, civil aircraft, design parameter