基于统计的民用飞机签派可靠度计算方法研究

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2016.03.007

广西师范大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 46-52.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2016.03.007

基于统计的民用飞机签派可靠度计算方法研究

褚双磊^1,2, 任强^1,2, 魏志强^1,2, 刘菲^1,2

1. 中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300;
2.天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室,天津300300

收稿日期:2016-01-04 出版日期:2016-09-30 发布日期:2018-09-17
通讯作者: 褚双磊(1982—),男,天津人,中国民航大学讲师,博士。E-mail: chushuanglei@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(21407174);航空科学基金资助项目(20140267002);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(3122014C021、3122014B005);工业和信息化部民用飞机专项科研项目(MJ-J-2012-4,MJ-2014-Y-65)

Study on Calculation Method of Dispatch Reliabilityof Civil Aircraft Based on Statistics

CHU Shuanglei ^1,2, REN Qiang^1,2, WEI Zhiqiang^1,2, LIU Fei^1,2

1.College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300,China;
2.TianjinKey Laboratory of Operation Programming and Safety Technology of Air Traffic Management, Tianjin 300300,China

Received:2016-01-04 Online:2016-09-30 Published:2018-09-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 签派可靠度是表征民用客机整机可靠性的关键参数,也是影响飞机原始设计的重要技术参数。本文采集了航空公司实际统计的机型延误率数据,根据延误率和签派可靠度的映射关系,从民用飞机设计角度入手,首先提出飞机初期设计阶段的7个设计参数,对延误率与设计参数进行相关分析,得出相关度最大的前3个设计参数,建立了签派可靠度与3个飞机原始设计参数之间的多元回归模型,对民用飞机的签派可靠度进行预测,并用A320现役飞机和C919国产大飞机进行实证,预测模型合理,预测精度较高,可以为我国民用飞机整机签派可靠度的预测奠定理论基础和数据支撑,同时签派可靠度的预测模型可以为民用飞机的结构设计提供数据参考。

关键词: 签派可靠度, 可靠性, 民用客机, 设计参数

Abstract: Dispatch reliability is the key parameters reflecting the overall reliability of a civil aircraft, and the important technical parameters affecting the original design of a civil aircraft. According to the actual delay rate data of airlines, combined with the mathematical relationship between delay rate and dispatch reliability, from the perspective of civil aircraft design, seven design parameters at the aircraft early design phase are put forward in this paper, the correlation analysis between the delay rate and design parameters is made, the first three design parameters which have the maximum correlation are obtained. Also this paper, a multiple regression model between dispatch reliability and aircraft original design parameters is established. Based on this model, the dispatch reliability of civil aircraft can be predicted. An empirical study with A320 and C919 shows that the prediction model is reasonable and has higher precision accuracy, which may lay the theoretical basis and data support for dispatch reliability prediction of the civil aircraft in China, meanwhile the prediction model of dispatch reliability can provide reference data for the structure design of civil aircraft.

Key words: dispatch reliability, reliability, civil aircraft, design parameter

中图分类号:

V221

褚双磊, 任强, 魏志强, 刘菲. 基于统计的民用飞机签派可靠度计算方法研究[J]. 广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2016, 34(3): 46-52.

CHU Shuanglei , REN Qiang, WEI Zhiqiang, LIU Fei. Study on Calculation Method of Dispatch Reliabilityof Civil Aircraft Based on Statistics[J]. Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2016, 34(3): 46-52.

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基于统计的民用飞机签派可靠度计算方法研究

Study on Calculation Method of Dispatch Reliabilityof Civil Aircraft Based on Statistics

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