广西师范大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2015, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 7-15.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2015.03.002

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基于CA模型的海港城市空间形态演化模式研究——以天津滨海新区外生情景模拟为例

黄焕春1, 运迎霞2, 王世臻3, 屈永超2, 苗展堂2   

  1. 1.南京林业大学风景园林学院城市规划系,江苏南京210037;
    2.天津大学建筑学院城市规划系,天津300072;
    3.淄博智达建筑设计有限公司,山东淄博255000
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-30 出版日期:2015-05-10 发布日期:2018-09-20
  • 通讯作者: 运迎霞(1957—),女,天津人,天津大学教授,博导。E-mail: yungx@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278330);国家社科基金重大项目资助(13&ZD162);南京林业大学人才引进启动基金(GXL017)

Urban Form Expend Model of Port City Based on CA Model under Exogenous Scenario: a Case Study in Tianjin Binhai New Zone

HUANG Huan-chun, YUN Ying-xia, WANG Shi-zhen, QU Yong-chao, MIAO Zhan-tang   

  1. 1. Department of Urban Planning, College of Landscape Architecture,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 21003,China;
    2. Department of Urban Planning, Architecture College, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
    3. Zibo Zhida Architectural Design Co., Ltd., Zibo Shandong 255000,China
  • Received:2015-03-30 Online:2015-05-10 Published:2018-09-20

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摘要： 本文通过研究具有典型特征的天津滨海新区城市形态的快速演化过程,探索海港城市空间形态演变的过程—格局—机理,以期丰富相关基础理论,为城市规划建设布局提供科学依据。基于改进logistic-CA模型嵌入复合灰色预测方法,模拟分析1998-2014年城市空间形态历史演化,预测外生情景下2014-2030年城市形态演化。结果表明:改进模型具有很好的适应性,模拟结果显示2014-2030年5个组团将转变为两大轴带扩展,最后实现区域用地全部城市化。进而得出结论:海港城市形态演化经历4个阶段,即单核生长,组团扩展,轴带扩张,区域填充;海港城市空间形态空间演化中,表现出逐渐摆脱外部,实现独立自身发展;在外生发展模式下,城市形态易走向分散化,出现跳跃式与填充式扩展的交替。

关键词: 海港城市, 外生情景, 城市形态, logistic-CA模型, 天津滨海新区

Abstract: This paper, using the modified logistic-CA model, simulates and predicts urban morphology evolution of Tianjin Binhai New Zone from 1998 to 2030,as well as investigates the Process-pattern-Mechanism under the exogenous scenario, so as to better grasp urban form evolution regularities and enrich the basic theory. It also provides scientific proposal for urban planning and construction layout. The results show that the improved model has good adaptability. The simulation results indicate that from 2014 to 2030, the city will expand around the five clusters, then urban form achieves the connection of north-south urban development belt and Hai River development axis in the form of block filling. It can be concluded that the formevolution of coastal city will undergo four stages, namely core growth, clusters expansion, belt and axis expansion, regional filling. During the process of evolution, the city gradually gets rid of the extermal in fluence and achievse independent self-development. Under the exogenous scenarios, urban form tends to be decentralized, and change alternatively from leaping expansion to filling extension.

Key words: coastal city, exogenous scenarios, urban form, logistic-CA simulation, Tianjin Binhai New Area

中图分类号: 

  • O415.3
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