Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition) ›› 2015, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 7-15.doi: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2015.03.002

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Urban Form Expend Model of Port City Based on CA Model under Exogenous Scenario: a Case Study in Tianjin Binhai New Zone

HUANG Huan-chun, YUN Ying-xia, WANG Shi-zhen, QU Yong-chao, MIAO Zhan-tang   

  1. 1. Department of Urban Planning, College of Landscape Architecture,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 21003,China;
    2. Department of Urban Planning, Architecture College, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
    3. Zibo Zhida Architectural Design Co., Ltd., Zibo Shandong 255000,China
  • Received:2015-03-30 Online:2015-05-10 Published:2018-09-20

Abstract: This paper, using the modified logistic-CA model, simulates and predicts urban morphology evolution of Tianjin Binhai New Zone from 1998 to 2030,as well as investigates the Process-pattern-Mechanism under the exogenous scenario, so as to better grasp urban form evolution regularities and enrich the basic theory. It also provides scientific proposal for urban planning and construction layout. The results show that the improved model has good adaptability. The simulation results indicate that from 2014 to 2030, the city will expand around the five clusters, then urban form achieves the connection of north-south urban development belt and Hai River development axis in the form of block filling. It can be concluded that the formevolution of coastal city will undergo four stages, namely core growth, clusters expansion, belt and axis expansion, regional filling. During the process of evolution, the city gradually gets rid of the extermal in fluence and achievse independent self-development. Under the exogenous scenarios, urban form tends to be decentralized, and change alternatively from leaping expansion to filling extension.

Key words: coastal city, exogenous scenarios, urban form, logistic-CA simulation, Tianjin Binhai New Area

CLC Number: 

  • O415.3
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