飞行冲突调配概率安全评估方法研究

doi:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2015.01.005

Abstract

Abstract: In the present technology condition and operation mode, potential air traffic conflicts are resolved by ground monitoring, radar vectoring and air ground collaboration. Therefore it is extremely important to ensure the seamless and reliable operation of the loop. Obviously, quantitative safety analysis is undoubtedly necessary for such a safety-critical operation, and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) seems to be the best way address the issue. The entire process of air traffic conflict resolution is analyzed herein based on the operation practice of air navigation system, and the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique is adopted to depict the logic consequence of air traffic conflict resolution process. It takes into account of the failures of not only man (generally air traffic controllers and pilots) but also machine involved (collision avoidance equipment) both on the ground and airborne. Under the ETA analysis frame, the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) which is a typical human reliability analysis model widely used in many industries is applied here for the estimation of human reliability of air traffic controllers and pilots. The overall failure probability of air traffic conflict resolution is obtained through the ETA calculation principal by counting both human and machine factors. The research shows the ETA and HEART combined probabilistic safety assessment model discussed in the paper is feasible for the air navigation system, and it provides a view and method for safety analysis of the system as well as a clue for the risk prevention.

Key words: traffic engineering, probabilistic safety assessment, event tree analysis, human reliability, air traffic conflict

CLC Number:

V328

YUAN Le-ping, SUN Rui-shan. Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Air Traffic Conflict Resolution[J].Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2015, 33(1): 27-31.

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